Overeating Model help

C I see a treat (cookie, muffin, dessert, etc)
T eating it just this once won’t matter
F anticipation
A eat the treat
R continue to use this rationale and don’t lose weight

C I see a treat
T eating it just this once sets a pattern that I don’t want
F hopeful that allowing the urge will result in weight loss, sad that I don’t get the treat, skepticism
A sit with the urge
R eventually lose weight

But this rolls into the next thought of “what if it doesn’t work?”
What do I do with argumentative thoughts following my model?