Friend not speaking to me

I have a friend who has gone radio silent. Hasn’t replied to my texts but replies in a group text we’re in, and I have no idea why. I have a feeling if I ask, she won’t tell me the truth. Normally, if someone’s upset with me I have some idea why, but in this case I just feel a little blindsided. My only guess is that a mutual friend of ours, who’s always been a little jealous of our friendship, might have tried to stir something up/said something out of context or flat-out untrue (she’s done it before). I go back and forth between trying to figure out how I can fix what’s gone wrong, and being angry that whatever it was, she believed it. I guess I have two models:
C: Friend not speaking to me
T: She’s mad at me.
F: Anxious
A: consider trying to discuss it with her even when I know she won’t tell me the truth
R: paper over the problem but no longer close

C: Friend not speaking to me
T: If she’s not even going to let me defend myself, then I don’t want to be her friend.
F: Angry
A: Write her off.
R: friendship over

I honestly don’t know which of these models to choose. Neither one of them feels good.