Model help

Im having a hard time seeing how results always “proove” thoughts, are there ever times that it doesnt apply? Exanpke:

C: i came home and a box had been overnight shipped from across the country to me with 70 dollar wine glasses w my correct name and address but no name or receipt or card who its from . I initially had other models (initial thoucht : wow this is a great surprise and feeling excitement which led to sharing with people but then the result was a new circumstance of my dad bringing up concern it could be from one of my paych patients and potentially be dangerous sign.

T: thats super unlikely to be true but i guess it COULD be possible, these sort of weird stalking and gift giving things could happen, maybe I should be more on gaurd since everyone i asked said if wasnt from them
A: set alarm for first time in months and months, continue to ask ppl if was them
F: uncertainty/uneasy
R: its possible it could be a patient but unlikely???? Would that be tbe result for this thoughf?